This Week's Newsletter is TRL 1

Good evening and welcome to everyone who joined us this week! In honor of Oppenheimer opening this past weekend, we wonder how the Manhattan Project would have been conveyed using technology readiness levels (TRL), plus an update on the NDAA.

This week’s post:

• 🔍 TRL is in the Eye of the Beholder

• 📃 Update: NDAA

• 💰 Term Sheet

• 🚩 Red Team Update

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TRL is in the Eye of the Beholder

Interested in commercializing your defense-specific technology? The National Security Innovation Network’s (NSIN) Foundry program to help just that prefers your TRL be at least TRL 4. Trying to get a prototype to the field for scale-up from S&T to acquisition? The Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (JCTD) program requires it be at TRL 6 or above. What about working more closely with a customer, going straight to INDOPACOM for S&T support or endorsement? That’ll require either a “credible” or “high” TRL. And the price of entry to work with AFWERX on your autonomy technology is a TRL 4 or 6 to go even faster.

TRL is part of the core vernacular when working with DoD S&T or R&D organizations, and has increasingly been adopted beyond. The upside in using TRL is that it attempts to provide a somewhat consistent if not completely objective way to rapidly communicate how far along a technology is. The downside (or another upside if you’re savvy enough) is that the assessment is often in the eye of the beholder.

So what is TRL and where did it come from? From the originator’s (NASA) Systems Engineering Handbook, it’s a “scale against which to measure the maturity of a technology.” The Government Accountability Office elaborates in its Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) guide: “The scale consists of nine levels, each one requiring the technology to be demonstrated in incrementally higher levels of fidelity in terms of its form, the level of integration with other parts of the system, and its operating environment than the previous, until the final level where the actual operation of the technology is in its final form and proven through successful mission operations.” There’s a lot of information out there on its history. For our purposes, it started in the 1970s at NASA for complex systems, got adopted by the DoD in the 1990s, and has been used in all sorts of industries to lend an air of credibility ever since.

But basically it’s a somewhat subjective scale to facilitate communication about technology across stakeholders. Or an old-school thermometer, depending on who you ask:

We’ve mentioned that TRL is in the eye of the beholder. The DoD has made the process more objective with its TRA process, but that only applies to Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs). To move past Milestone B of an MDAP (into engineering and manufacturing), the TRA must assess the technology at least TRL 6. That’s in US law [Title 10 United States Code (U.S.C.) Section 2366b], but even that only applies to “critical technologies.”

The key point for the defense tech entrepreneur is that TRL is a common first-pass (multi-pass, really) framework to communicate your technology to relevant customers (which vary based upon your TRL), even if imperfect. Being familiar with the framework allows you to place your technology in the appropriate DoD market via TRL, and it’s often one of the foundational questions for doing business with anyone in DoD.

But the burden of proof is on the claimant. As in any subjective scale, that gives you some latitude but also means you need to collect a body of evidence based upon your claim: NASA gives exit criteria here and DoD lists supporting information to demonstrate a TRL in here (warning: moving from a thermometer to a wall of text makes it more objective, but see below…)

UPDATE: The NDAA Process and Appropriations

You may have recently seen headlines in mainstream media that The House recently passed the National Defense Authorization Act along party lines with a 219-210 vote. We’ll leave the politics of the vote for other newsletters, but the $886Bn measure now heads to the Senate.

The Senate certainly has its work cut out as the smaller chamber of congress, given that over 800+ amendments filed to the NDAA. As of last week, the Senate passed a bipartisan consideration (72-25) on advancing the NDAA. The Senate is now considering the amendments, all 872 of them (most will not get considered, but still, 872! filed).

The Senate has focused on a bipartisan amendment package where they reviewed 21 republican and 21 democrat introduced changes along with 9 bipartisan proposals. These provisions covered China, Taiwan, AUKUS, and the crowd favorite, UFOs to name a few.

Congress must pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) by December 31, 2023. The NDAA has successfully passed before January of the corresponding fiscal year for the last 62 years.

What is the NDAA? The NDAA act establishes policy and authorizes appropriations for the DoD, nuclear weapons programs of the Dept of Energy, and other defense-related activities. It’s important to keep in mind though, the NDAA does not allocate money to the DoD. It more establishes where the DoD can spend money if DoD is appropriated money from the fiscal budget.

The Appropriations Committee, separate from the NDAA, is how Congress actually provides the funding that is authorized in the NDAA. We have recently reviewed the House Appropriations Committee’s - Defense report and below are the key takeaways for RDT&E:

RDT&E funding is increased by 5.1% over the previous year and 1.4% in the current bill vs. the request by the President.

What is inside the plus up? The Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) is receiving $837M for additional technology areas and to support combatant commanders. Also, the adaptive engine, next-gen combat vehicle, C3 network technology, long range precision fires technology and future vertical lift technology are all included in the major plus ups.

The largest increase recommendation goes to the Army RDT&E for additive manufacturing for weapons and armament components, ceramics, autonomous digital design, carbon nanomaterials as functional additives, extreme battery tech, flexible hybrid electronics, and rapid ultra-lightweight infrastructure manufacturing.

One of the biggest outliers is the reduction to the Space Force RDT&E at a time when more funding for low earth orbit maneuvering satellites and cislunar missions have been released to the press by commanders.

We’ll continue to update you on the NDAA process and unpack what the changes and amendments mean for the AoT community as the process unfolds.

Red Team Update

China Uses Sanction Loop Holes to Send Dual-Use Equipment to Russia

• China is indirectly supplying Russia with non-lethal, but militarily useful, equipment, such as bulletproof vests, helmets, drones, and thermal optical sights. This equipment can support Russia's war on Ukraine and equip many of its mobilized soldiers

• The sale of "dual-use technology" by Chinese companies creates a loophole in Western attempts to sanction Russia effectively. These technologies have both civilian and military applications, allowing China to maintain plausible deniability and avoid confrontation with Western authorities

• Russian companies are involved in these transactions, setting up shell companies to conceal their dealings with Chinese suppliers. The ambiguity surrounding the dual-use status of the equipment and its manufacturing in China makes it challenging for the West to take decisive action

About Us

Our team has 30+ years of combined experience as military officers using the end products. We’ve worked in both government and industry. From MIT to Wharton, Wall Street to biotech, and DARPA to the flightline, we offer you a unique perspective on how to navigate America’s defense tech industry.

The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DoD, our employers or any affiliated organization. This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide legal, financial or professional advice